Mary7447
0x938cc426724155b711a139a871e37198bed88565
- Realised P&L
- $-25.55
- Volume
- $25.9k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $15.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.997 | 0.998 | $11.41 | +$0.01 |
| Will Allen Graves win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $4.50 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.98at 0.996Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22?
- +$0.68at 0.997Will the Liberals win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
- +$0.49at 0.860Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7?
- +$0.44at 0.998Will Stade Brestois advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?
- +$0.22at 0.999Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:36 | Will Allen Graves win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.50 |
| 09-12 13:16 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.40 |
| 09-10 04:19 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $12.30 |
| 09-07 02:28 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.30 |
| 09-06 06:06 | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.70 |
| 09-02 06:18 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.995 | $3.28 |
| 09-02 06:17 | Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.89 |
| 09-02 06:15 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.89 |
| 09-02 06:14 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.79 |
| 09-01 20:53 | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.70 |
| 08-30 13:24 | Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.90 |
| 08-26 11:49 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.30 |
| 08-24 06:40 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.80 |
| 08-09 14:22 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.997 | $9.08 |
| 08-08 13:08 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.90 |