lilianovich
0x9347a7333797f1ae306aa769a9dda5d879801e77
- Realised P&L
- $-36.80
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 824
- Open portfolio
- $28.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded824
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.575 | $11.50 | −$0.10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET · Up | 0.740 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$2.60 |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the February meeting? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.355 | $7.10 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.00at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
- +$10.35at 0.143Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
- +$9.65at 0.035Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
- +$8.98at 0.234Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
- +$7.35at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 09:56 | Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.26 |
| 11-01 09:56 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the January interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 11-01 09:56 | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the cash rate target at the February meeting? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 09:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 10-06 09:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 10-06 09:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 10-06 09:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 10-06 08:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 10-06 06:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 10-06 06:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 10-06 06:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 10-06 06:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 10-06 02:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 10-06 02:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 10-06 02:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |