Jannes55
0x930159d551572b243004021d5d5c7bb0be01e738
- Realised P&L
- $-60.21
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $131.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.125 | $70.76 | −$29.24 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.064 | $35.79 | −$54.21 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.145 | $17.68 | −$32.32 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.025 | $6.89 | −$13.11 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? · No | 0.699 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$90.00at 0.345Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$37.00at 0.460Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$14.08at 0.710Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$11.00at 0.250US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$10.06at 0.473Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 16:04 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 15:52 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0739999966 | $20.00 |
| 05-14 15:51 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.4099999969 | $50.00 |
| 04-08 10:49 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.5206921512 | $110.06 |
| 04-08 10:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.91 | $64.08 |
| 03-21 11:31 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1590367673 | $30.00 |
| 03-16 18:15 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.4730933098 | $100.00 |
| 03-16 18:01 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? | BUY | 0.2596953638 | $10.00 |
| 03-16 18:00 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.6994397347 | $10.00 |
| 03-16 18:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $50.00 |
| 03-04 19:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0090000101 | $1.00 |
| 03-04 18:58 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $60.00 |
| 02-28 14:37 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $83.00 |
| 02-28 14:36 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.795 | $159.00 |
| 01-31 13:50 | US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999941 | $20.00 |