0x3B3501fDb41C4748e03f9DE1e898cbE8C978F23F-1764691723296
0x92fed5431f55b4a506dc53d382817b216340cd95
- Realised P&L
- $-8.25
- Volume
- $93.53
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $4.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No | 0.540 | 1.000 | $1.85 | +$0.85 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? · No | 0.855 | 1.000 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.690 | 0.370 | $1.07 | −$0.93 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.725 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.56at 0.969Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
- +$0.22at 0.738Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$0.12at 0.894Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.929Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.931Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 17:33 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.8549999743 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 16:52 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999539 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 07:46 | Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 07:21 | Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 05:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 05:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.987999996 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 05:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9859999934 | $1.50 |
| 06-25 05:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $1.50 |
| 06-24 20:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 11:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.16 |
| 06-24 11:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $1.06 |
| 06-24 11:49 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.22 |
| 06-24 11:48 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $2.07 |
| 06-24 11:34 | Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.07 |
| 06-23 11:35 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999977 | $2.00 |