37caesdre
0x92b90e4a2ef4c4c3d7bc40fed980af8842580b49
- Realised P&L
- $-148.32
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $31.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? · No | 0.992 | 0.998 | $30.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.969 | 0.850 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.53 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Magic · Trail Blazers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.29at 0.890Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 4?
- +$1.33at 0.962Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 31?
- +$1.14at 0.001Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
- +$1.02at 0.975Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5?
- +$0.82at 0.550Ducks vs. Islanders
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 11:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.992 | $30.00 |
| 10-04 06:36 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 02:09 | Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on September 7? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $8.00 |
| 08-19 21:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | SELL | 0.202 | $8.42 |
| 08-18 00:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.9739999809 | $40.60 |
| 08-16 12:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 16? | BUY | 0.9949999771 | $40.40 |
| 08-05 01:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.972999988 | $39.50 |
| 08-02 02:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9899999813 | $35.00 |
| 07-30 01:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9729999999 | $32.80 |
| 07-29 02:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9849999997 | $32.00 |
| 07-27 04:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 27? | BUY | 0.9958907631 | $32.00 |
| 07-26 03:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9869999997 | $31.60 |
| 07-25 01:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 25? | BUY | 0.9889999997 | $31.50 |
| 07-22 14:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.00 |
| 07-16 13:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16? | BUY | 0.9949999713 | $13.00 |