Thaken1
0x92b8fe04bbc09561396a47587a1718c41932c78a
- Realised P&L
- $-13.54
- Volume
- $169.98
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $9.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.615 | $4.63 | +$0.19 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? · Yes | 0.685 | 0.665 | $4.42 | −$0.13 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.91at 0.650Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
- +$0.25at 0.971Will Italy win on 2026-09-28?
- +$-0.02at 0.996Will Wisconsin be the closest state?
- +$-2.35at 0.876Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$-4.69at 0.090Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 21:02 | Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.5899999057 | $2.19 |
| 09-28 21:01 | Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.6799999882 | $2.30 |
| 09-28 20:56 | Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.5899998951 | $2.25 |
| 09-28 20:55 | Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.689999908 | $2.25 |
| 09-28 20:47 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.16 |
| 09-28 19:18 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? | BUY | 0.9699999989 | $8.90 |
| 03-26 09:41 | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | BUY | 0.7299999592 | $11.63 |
| 12-09 22:59 | Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | SELL | 0.994 | $11.63 |
| 11-28 19:26 | Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.66 |
| 11-28 17:35 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | SELL | 0.729 | $11.66 |
| 11-23 16:05 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | BUY | 0.8759999413 | $14.02 |
| 11-15 19:52 | Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | BUY | 0.0899999827 | $4.69 |
| 11-15 19:51 | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | BUY | 0.6499999786 | $9.11 |