lewisdaniel
0x929ce16b1f7e1ae24b6843b72154d1a625c84417
- Realised P&L
- $-84.51
- Volume
- $21.4k
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $88.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.588 | 0.843 | $42.32 | +$12.80 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11? · No | 0.900 | 0.935 | $27.26 | +$1.02 |
| Braga: Matej Dodig vs Andrea Pellegrino · Matej Dodig | 0.610 | 0.615 | $18.61 | +$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.20at 0.520Spread: Virginia Tech (-3.5)
- +$9.65at 0.610China Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Yunchaokete Bu
- +$6.26at 0.600Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?
- +$5.93at 0.920Texans vs. Chiefs
- +$5.07at 0.998Bitcoin all time high by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:53 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9840859021 | $7.03 |
| 01-30 16:52 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.37 |
| 01-30 16:12 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $13.24 |
| 01-30 15:20 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.97 |
| 01-30 11:59 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $40.23 |
| 12-30 18:29 | Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.99 |
| 12-30 16:58 | Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999369 | $5.64 |
| 12-30 10:10 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.44 |
| 12-29 23:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9939999716 | $34.68 |
| 12-29 19:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.997999983 | $28.82 |
| 10-31 15:51 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.48 |
| 10-31 15:41 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.55 |
| 10-31 14:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.11 |
| 09-29 09:47 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.30 |
| 09-29 05:57 | Will Solana reach $300 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.73 |