0x9253A534D9B15737f1Cc8a0fc44f51719FB6344c-1774225187112
0x9253a534d9b15737f1cc8a0fc44f51719fb6344c
- Realised P&L
- $-250.95
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $19.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.44at 0.174Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$50.67at 0.540Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$46.26at 0.917Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?
- +$29.08at 0.680Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?
- +$24.72at 0.754Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 13:26 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 13:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9689999475 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 03:27 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999947 | $16.00 |
| 09-14 05:12 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | SELL | 0.966 | $14.41 |
| 08-03 10:35 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.4417177886 | $80.00 |
| 08-02 15:54 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 15:01 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30? | BUY | 0.0633483581 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 22:23 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.5399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-06 13:40 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 10:35 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $53.07 |
| 07-05 10:44 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.4399999982 | $40.00 |
| 07-05 03:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 00:49 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 06:20 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 04:11 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.925 | $10.00 |