pm260303
0x92046743419fe80b03b13b4daf8a501d54ef6c17
- Realised P&L
- $66.62
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 433
- Open portfolio
- $235.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded433
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $99.95 | +$0.25 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $60.20 | +$0.03 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.995 | $39.78 | −$0.10 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.990 | $29.68 | −$0.22 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.995 | $5.96 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.58at 0.748Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4?
- +$131.01at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17?
- +$120.91at 0.748Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$116.88at 0.748Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 8?
- +$100.70at 0.748Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:05 | Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $29.91 |
| 09-17 08:04 | Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.98 |
| 09-17 08:03 | Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $39.88 |
| 09-17 08:01 | Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $60.17 |
| 09-17 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 09-14 02:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $49.75 |
| 09-13 13:11 | Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 09-13 13:11 | Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 09-13 13:10 | Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-13 13:10 | Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-13 13:09 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $49.65 |
| 09-12 10:34 | Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.54 |
| 09-12 10:33 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 09-12 10:33 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $49.35 |
| 09-12 10:30 | Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.93 |