taotaotiancai
0x91fe8712e973331f4e0bf7435e2d15c96caa7a62
- Realised P&L
- $-9.46
- Volume
- $685.55
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $5.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 21? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.012 | $4.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 21? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.034 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.005 | $0.01 | −$0.15 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET · Down | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET · Down | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 19? · Yes | 0.629 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.47at 0.597Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
- +$1.51at 0.577Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
- +$0.96at 0.840Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
- +$0.82at 0.788Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 20?
- +$0.68at 0.953Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 06:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 10-20 06:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 06:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 06:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:35 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.3072215777 | $5.30 |
| 10-20 05:34 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C or below on October 20? | SELL | 0.96 | $5.70 |
| 10-20 04:37 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 21? | BUY | 0.0308436351 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 04:32 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.9207800312 | $5.90 |
| 10-20 04:20 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C or below on October 20? | BUY | 0.8409999763 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 04:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.1114887339 | $4.16 |
| 10-20 03:39 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 21? | BUY | 0.0269999993 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 03:39 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 21? | BUY | 0.0046931832 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 15:44 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 15:43 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 15:43 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |