efesf321
0x91dc2b851ebc3539c225e58ecbb98071455d8bbc
- Realised P&L
- $-107.44
- Volume
- $9.3k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $2.23
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $1.14 | −$10.25 |
| Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.972 | $1.09 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.70at 0.006Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.59at 0.642Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
- +$0.02at 0.978SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
- +$0.01at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 16:19 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.08 |
| 09-06 13:32 | Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.13 |
| 08-27 14:22 | Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury | BUY | 0.629999792 | $1.03 |
| 06-11 22:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9929993419 | $1.10 |
| 06-11 22:22 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.05 |
| 06-11 22:21 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 22:21 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.04 |
| 06-11 22:21 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.04 |
| 06-11 22:21 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 13? | BUY | 0.9989990961 | $1.05 |
| 06-11 22:20 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.02 |
| 06-11 22:20 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.03 |
| 06-11 22:20 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | BUY | 0.9769999834 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 22:19 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.9909999962 | $1.04 |
| 06-11 22:19 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.20 |
| 04-10 14:44 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.17 |