ster
0x91b906c731d8096986fddb089739bfb339dcdcd8
- Realised P&L
- $32.6k
- Volume
- $337.0k
- Markets traded
- 419
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded419
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · No | 0.827 | 0.977 | $902.78 | +$137.93 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.165 | $330.00 | −$185.69 |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? · No | 0.903 | 0.926 | $224.90 | +$5.66 |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.947 | $39.78 | +$2.39 |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.165 | $6.76 | +$1.02 |
| Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.210 | $6.63 | +$3.74 |
| Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.535 | $1.14 | −$0.59 |
| Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.56 |
| Another commercial airline evacuation before March? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.83 |
| Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.1kat 0.131Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
- +$979.20at 0.587Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?
- +$626.29at 0.946Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$594.31at 0.937Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$526.34at 0.935Will Russia rejoin the G7 in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:15 | Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $0.43 |
| 09-10 07:55 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | BUY | 0.25784795 | $515.70 |
| 09-09 07:02 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $525.00 |
| 08-12 22:59 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.7 | $252.00 |
| 04-28 18:54 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | SELL | 0.13 | $28.10 |
| 03-23 21:25 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $79.50 |
| 03-22 16:45 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.3 | $39.00 |
| 03-22 14:38 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.39 | $97.50 |
| 03-20 10:46 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | SELL | 0.7588578383 | $324.23 |
| 03-20 09:26 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY | 0.4329292543 | $56.61 |
| 03-20 09:15 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY | 0.3432996107 | $241.61 |
| 03-13 06:23 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.850551901 | $164.21 |
| 12-20 15:41 | German government files appeal to ban AfD in 2025? | SELL | 0.010024431 | $5.04 |
| 12-17 18:04 | Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025? | BUY | 0.096823554 | $50.87 |
| 12-12 02:15 | Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? | BUY | 0.8953127903 | $221.69 |