0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b
0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b2
- Realised P&L
- $42.7k
- Volume
- $16.26M
- Markets traded
- 2,161
- Open portfolio
- $301.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,161
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.170 | $119.17 | −$27.55 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $90.41 | −$271.08 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.018 | $53.34 | −$2.91 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.155 | $38.15 | −$21.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.1kat 0.500Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$4.0kat 0.548Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
- +$2.6kat 0.032Another US military action against Iran by Monday?
- +$2.2kat 0.320Will the government shutdown end November 12?
- +$2.1kat 0.162US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 00:15 | Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2439393939 | $64.40 |
| 10-31 11:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | SELL | 0.14 | $214.58 |
| 10-30 21:26 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.3099803765 | $42.65 |
| 10-30 21:26 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.178257105 | $277.11 |
| 10-30 15:52 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.07 |
| 10-29 23:09 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | SELL | 0.0359412872 | $3.05 |
| 10-29 23:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | SELL | 0.2817326751 | $29.68 |
| 10-29 23:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.2877422993 | $66.32 |
| 10-29 21:24 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | BUY | 0.094895378 | $126.20 |
| 10-29 21:19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.1161800434 | $26.78 |
| 10-29 21:19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.1510779381 | $15.91 |
| 10-28 20:50 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2836788574 | $26.22 |
| 10-28 17:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $23.59 |
| 10-28 17:04 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.5491705 | $329.50 |
| 10-28 16:57 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $181.79 |