0x9158d71abde51362bfe43eef2e6f8cdc8393486c
0x9158d71abde51362bfe43eef2e6f8cdc8393486c
- Realised P&L
- $-8.29
- Volume
- $67.16
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $2.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.985 | $2.01 | +$1.01 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.050 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $148 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.024 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.00at 0.500US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.96at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference?
- +$0.65at 0.610Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 10:26 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $148 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 00:56 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 16:45 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 05:32 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:37 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in September? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:41 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 15:28 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 06:52 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 22:51 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:51 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:50 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 22:39 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 05:45 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:10 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 04:55 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |