0x9152C9d12189E376806B9A2E800e05171e4939Eb-1773489619155
0x9152c9d12189e376806b9a2e800e05171e4939eb
- Realised P&L
- $3.66
- Volume
- $27.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $13.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $13.98 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.24at 0.986Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.08at 0.950Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?
- +$0.17at 0.988Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12?
- +$0.09at 0.996Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 17?
- +$0.07at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 08:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.97 |
| 07-03 07:01 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $8.04 |
| 06-22 07:48 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.36 |
| 06-22 07:47 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.84 |
| 05-19 04:08 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 05-11 08:04 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $7.44 |
| 04-25 04:20 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $8.40 |
| 04-23 08:21 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.17 |
| 04-22 09:10 | Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.007 | $9.94 |
| 04-21 08:31 | Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $9.78 |
| 04-20 07:41 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 03-18 06:47 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.991 | $642.17 |
| 03-17 08:37 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.986 | $31.55 |
| 02-28 16:30 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | SELL | 0.999 | $22.02 |
| 02-12 00:40 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | BUY | 0.95 | $20.94 |