0x914e501e697bdc6e126f7ac99762f4e780b179f3
- Realised P&L
- $131.78
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $205.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.870 | $59.72 | +$1.34 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.860 | $45.98 | +$2.67 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.878 | 0.977 | $43.17 | +$4.37 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.339 | 0.466 | $34.33 | +$9.33 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.925 | $20.04 | +$4.44 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.105 | $1.76 | −$4.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$157.93at 0.239Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
- +$18.35at 0.758Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$9.82at 0.877Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?
- +$4.94at 0.819Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?
- +$4.39at 0.885Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 06:57 | Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.8099999979 | $43.31 |
| 09-03 06:56 | Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.8504870146 | $58.38 |
| 08-15 08:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9199999906 | $39.06 |
| 06-17 18:28 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999963 | $15.60 |
| 06-02 17:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9749999191 | $10.85 |
| 06-02 17:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? | BUY | 0.9099999996 | $43.93 |
| 06-01 15:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? | BUY | 0.9809999948 | $29.34 |
| 06-01 13:36 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3389999942 | $25.00 |
| 06-01 13:35 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9384027186 | $47.00 |
| 05-26 10:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.9699999781 | $26.96 |
| 05-25 10:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? | BUY | 0.9840471044 | $26.85 |
| 05-22 07:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.9699999719 | $26.20 |
| 05-21 07:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? | BUY | 0.970999999 | $25.62 |
| 05-20 11:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? | BUY | 0.9719999997 | $25.08 |
| 05-19 12:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? | BUY | 0.92 | $23.23 |