Lucasrf
0x913c3f6d92acb3eacd6ea2df96011ad2799b3fb4
- Realised P&L
- $-25.73
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $8.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.29at 0.648Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$2.43at 0.296Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?
- +$2.09at 0.331Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17?
- +$1.67at 0.382Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?
- +$0.58at 0.637Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 00:29 | Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 00:29 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1429999794 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 00:27 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 00:26 | Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 00:26 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 00:24 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.21 |
| 06-09 02:29 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.09 |
| 06-09 02:27 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.41 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 04:41 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 04:41 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0983374308 | $4.00 |
| 05-20 04:39 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.22 |
| 05-20 04:39 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.013 | $2.60 |
| 05-20 04:39 | Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? | SELL | 0.96 | $1.23 |
| 05-20 04:39 | Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | SELL | 0.059 | $0.76 |
| 05-20 04:38 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.11 |