mgb22
0x9116a3b5cee8d5cd6264da21e643088db299740b
- Realised P&L
- $-5.8k
- Volume
- $591.9k
- Markets traded
- 2,837
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,837
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration48.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$633.58at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
- +$499.56at 0.462Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
- +$451.25at 0.728Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$388.24at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
- +$367.05at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 19:38 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.597 | $59.70 |
| 07-15 21:20 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.581 | $232.40 |
| 07-14 20:23 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0925 | $9.25 |
| 07-14 20:23 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0949999922 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:22 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 20:51 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.5974999636 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 20:51 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.5974999636 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 20:20 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 17:45 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.5699999939 | $15.00 |
| 07-07 17:05 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.6099999961 | $50.00 |
| 07-03 21:37 | Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 21:35 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.334 | $33.40 |
| 07-01 17:43 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | SELL | 0.38 | $164.51 |
| 07-01 17:35 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.2 | $25.00 |
| 07-01 16:53 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.4099999969 | $50.00 |