pie
0x90eae61d32eed9c830e11981120f556d318c33ce
- Realised P&L
- $-345.77
- Volume
- $65.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.675 | $924.66 | −$75.34 |
| Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election? · Yes | 0.903 | 0.705 | $590.28 | −$165.84 |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.574 | 0.510 | $444.16 | −$55.84 |
| Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.57 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$143.99 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.48at 0.996Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
- +$30.80at 0.997Lai Ching-te impeached before 2026?
- +$12.92at 0.006Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$-27.27at 0.585Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 16:05 | Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.9030724489 | $756.12 |
| 10-06 16:04 | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.5741186137 | $500.00 |
| 10-06 16:03 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7299999998 | $1000.00 |
| 06-02 07:15 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $144.00 |
| 02-28 00:14 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | SELL | 0.0030048067 | $11.54 |
| 02-27 22:20 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | BUY | 0.0064289392 | $50.00 |
| 12-31 04:55 | Lai Ching-te impeached before 2026? | BUY | 0.9969295269 | $10.0k |
| 12-31 04:54 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 12-29 12:51 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.9959669587 | $10.0k |
| 11-03 08:58 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.4339999989 | $200.00 |
| 11-02 20:04 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.585 | $498.56 |
| 01-13 08:38 | Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? | BUY | 0.03 | $6.86 |
| 01-13 08:35 | Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 01-13 08:32 | Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? | BUY | 0.05 | $3.00 |
| 01-13 08:30 | Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.00 |