ev1lbear
0x90d33891e0ca137ba2eca0b39cd33e791061e750
- Realised P&L
- $-28.91
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $34.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · No | 0.540 | 0.540 | $20.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October? · No | 0.690 | 0.685 | $14.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.00at 0.469Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$26.38at 0.494Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
- +$6.93at 0.690Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?
- +$5.77at 0.636US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$3.67at 0.737Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 16:16 | Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October? | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $15.00 |
| 10-05 07:53 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |
| 10-01 08:49 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.6719906398 | $15.00 |
| 09-28 14:08 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $23.49 |
| 09-28 07:55 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $33.92 |
| 09-24 16:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6699999911 | $15.00 |
| 09-22 16:16 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | SELL | 0.8154548473 | $24.56 |
| 09-21 16:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $15.00 |
| 09-21 07:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.44 | $20.00 |
| 09-18 15:55 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 08:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | SELL | 0.24 | $7.66 |
| 09-16 07:53 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.049 | $2.33 |
| 09-15 10:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.88 | $25.53 |
| 09-15 06:22 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.512 | $11.69 |
| 09-14 08:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $15.00 |