aefgasky
0x90be1853969f32ce7bf790b4a4f1af1b8a5c6224
- Realised P&L
- $-282.21
- Volume
- $134.2k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $449.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.954 | $114.42 | −$0.36 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.700 | $105.00 | −$9.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.630 | $91.98 | −$7.30 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.980 | 0.982 | $51.04 | +$0.08 |
| Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.959 | $28.77 | +$0.30 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.983 | $22.61 | −$0.16 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.728 | 0.750 | $22.48 | +$0.65 |
| PYUSD depeg by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.935 | $13.46 | +$0.07 |
| Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$109.50 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.28 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.60at 0.910EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
- +$10.00at 0.946Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.00at 0.910Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?
- +$8.87at 0.880Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
- +$7.72at 0.006Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 12:53 | Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | BUY | 0.73 | $109.50 |
| 09-12 12:52 | PYUSD depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.39 |
| 09-12 12:52 | Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.949 | $28.47 |
| 09-12 12:51 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.728 | $21.84 |
| 09-12 12:51 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $22.77 |
| 09-12 12:50 | Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $53.51 |
| 08-07 13:50 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.95649525 | $114.78 |
| 08-07 13:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.68 | $99.28 |
| 08-07 13:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.76 | $114.00 |
| 08-07 13:48 | Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $53.03 |
| 06-19 09:27 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.98 | $50.96 |
| 06-19 09:27 | Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $63.02 |
| 06-19 09:27 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $46.55 |
| 05-28 03:46 | Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $136.04 |
| 04-14 07:58 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $37.24 |