0x90af80df55eeb371ea7b47a3f4fe64cf15a9a42c
0x90af80df55eeb371ea7b47a3f4fe64cf15a9a42c
- Realised P&L
- $-852.16
- Volume
- $18.7k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $70.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 5? · No | 0.860 | 0.999 | $17.21 | +$2.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 6? · No | 0.500 | 0.525 | $15.30 | +$0.73 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 6? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.545 | $14.71 | +$0.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on October 6? · No | 0.730 | 0.705 | $10.57 | −$0.37 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 6? · No | 0.590 | 0.655 | $9.81 | +$0.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 6? · No | 0.710 | 0.485 | $2.45 | −$1.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.49at 0.762Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
- +$40.06at 0.781Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
- +$26.71at 0.787Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$18.85at 0.640Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
- +$17.07at 0.622Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 6? | BUY | 0.59 | $8.84 |
| 10-05 16:36 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.5 | $14.57 |
| 10-05 16:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 6? | BUY | 0.54 | $14.58 |
| 10-05 16:06 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.73 | $10.95 |
| 10-05 15:07 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.8599999988 | $14.82 |
| 10-05 14:06 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.59 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.7405584364 | $92.83 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $165.64 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $122.14 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.8651455957 | $178.26 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $225.53 |
| 08-03 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $283.95 |
| 08-03 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999904 | $10.53 |
| 08-03 07:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999997 | $16.58 |
| 08-03 07:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $51.65 |