liomcat
0x90765ab2f51b98bee2c52ba60af7499ef011f6a4
- Realised P&L
- $-625.02
- Volume
- $47.6k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $242.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.550 | 0.655 | $58.95 | +$9.45 |
| Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in September? · No | 0.940 | 0.961 | $38.41 | +$0.82 |
| US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? · No | 0.972 | 0.989 | $29.67 | +$0.51 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.977 | $29.30 | +$1.40 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.591 | 0.427 | $28.56 | −$10.92 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? · No | 0.930 | 0.950 | $28.50 | +$0.60 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September? · No | 0.993 | 0.998 | $19.95 | +$0.09 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in September? · No | 0.958 | 0.983 | $8.84 | +$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.15at 0.925Will Berachain launch a token in January?
- +$14.99at 0.600Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$13.96at 0.741Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$12.55at 0.893Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$11.09at 0.630Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 12:01 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in September? | BUY | 0.958 | $8.62 |
| 09-07 10:33 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in September? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 09-03 09:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September? | BUY | 0.993 | $19.86 |
| 08-07 13:00 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $31.72 |
| 08-07 12:59 | US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.972 | $29.16 |
| 08-07 12:58 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $29.67 |
| 07-21 09:58 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $20.87 |
| 07-21 09:56 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.591 | $39.48 |
| 07-21 09:51 | Iran invades Kuwait by July 31? | BUY | 0.987 | $49.35 |
| 07-21 09:51 | Iran invades Kuwait by July 31? | BUY | 0.9869 | $49.34 |
| 07-21 09:47 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $27.90 |
| 07-18 02:47 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 07-18 02:34 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.66 | $21.12 |
| 06-12 13:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | BUY | 0.975 | $19.49 |
| 06-12 13:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? | BUY | 0.977 | $95.59 |