The2lied
0x9060e19fabdc5691f2ced0215867f07f10af0605
- Realised P&L
- $-15.36
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $26.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.615 | $26.53 | +$7.53 |
| Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.33 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · No | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$118.98at 0.227Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$26.25at 0.160Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$16.85at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$15.92at 0.713Another Canada election called by June 30?
- +$11.33at 0.638Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 23:06 | Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend? | BUY | 0.4404945836 | $19.00 |
| 06-23 21:36 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.625 | $12.23 |
| 06-23 21:34 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | SELL | 0.5 | $12.65 |
| 06-23 21:21 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.5099999905 | $12.91 |
| 06-23 21:20 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.5799999979 | $100.00 |
| 06-23 21:19 | Another Canada election called by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $55.91 |
| 06-23 21:19 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.227 | $10.62 |
| 04-06 17:09 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.65 | $31.29 |
| 02-25 04:42 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2699999889 | $12.63 |
| 02-25 04:40 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.64 |
| 02-24 23:07 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999938 | $31.33 |
| 02-24 20:42 | Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.1113669065 | $3.87 |
| 02-24 20:42 | Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 02-24 20:34 | Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |
| 02-24 20:34 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.8799999982 | $40.00 |