YEEES-but-why
0x9052a5f2324b8efa264a2a37e942770284143c2d
- Realised P&L
- $-746.5k
- Volume
- $7.07M
- Markets traded
- 154
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded154
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? · Yes | 0.643 | 0.695 | $1.6k | +$115.58 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.846 | 0.791 | $935.58 | −$64.42 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.805 | $702.98 | +$48.03 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? · Yes | 0.453 | 0.455 | $568.30 | +$2.25 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.590 | $206.62 | +$7.00 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs · BetBoom Team | 0.253 | 0.001 | $14.36 | −$7.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.6kat 0.461Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
- +$59.3kat 0.608Broncos vs. 49ers
- +$43.5kat 0.410Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5
- +$40.4kat 0.480Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
- +$37.6kat 0.412Spread: Bills (-7.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 21:16 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | BUY | 0.14 | $157.09 |
| 10-18 20:38 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | SELL | 0.39 | $366.21 |
| 10-18 18:14 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | BUY | 0.31 | $4.5k |
| 10-18 18:13 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | SELL | 0.31 | $195.81 |
| 10-18 18:13 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | BUY | 0.31 | $136.51 |
| 10-18 16:57 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.89 | $6.5k |
| 10-18 16:04 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.8694519273 | $9.8k |
| 10-18 16:02 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.2k |
| 10-18 15:59 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.88 | $16.7k |
| 10-18 15:37 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.36 | $13.2k |
| 10-18 15:36 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.36 | $11.5k |
| 10-18 15:36 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.8k |
| 10-18 02:22 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | BUY | 0.66 | $659.99 |
| 10-17 17:00 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | SELL | 0.7252945472 | $973.27 |
| 10-17 16:15 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.9k |