Carlinghdf
0x904a4abc2f5ed9d67fed9eaae47d04d909853d8e
- Realised P&L
- $34.83
- Volume
- $14.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $0.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.030 | $0.49 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.11at 0.912Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)
- +$15.28at 0.903Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?
- +$0.40at 0.922Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
- +$0.08at 0.810Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
- +$0.00at 0.954Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:53 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $50.50 |
| 07-30 07:16 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $23.50 |
| 07-15 04:03 | Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? | SELL | 0.82 | $24.60 |
| 07-11 08:15 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.178 | $23.67 |
| 07-11 08:03 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.179 | $23.81 |
| 07-11 05:55 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | SELL | 0.9235358633 | $70.82 |
| 07-11 04:15 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | BUY | 0.922 | $328.23 |
| 05-30 05:13 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $130.40 |
| 05-28 08:59 | Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill? | BUY | 0.9 | $141.30 |
| 05-28 07:47 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.72 |
| 05-28 07:46 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $138.06 |
| 05-28 06:21 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $0.72 |
| 05-28 06:19 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | SELL | 0.081 | $4.70 |
| 05-28 06:18 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | SELL | 0.081 | $61.56 |
| 05-28 06:18 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | SELL | 0.081 | $56.70 |