Bigmarltoe
0x90208fb5dc9cdf55bd547ad12a8a3a657e7cf943
- Realised P&L
- $-87.10
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $742.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.964 | $587.50 | +$87.50 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.935 | $115.49 | +$15.49 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.829 | 0.954 | $23.00 | +$3.00 |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%? · Yes | 0.484 | 0.159 | $9.86 | −$20.14 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $6.49 | +$1.49 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? · No | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.98at 0.480Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$2.47at 0.890Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
- +$-22.87at 0.230Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 14:53 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 13:53 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.4499999797 | $10.00 |
| 06-22 14:31 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1979999984 | $100.00 |
| 06-18 02:48 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1849999851 | $10.00 |
| 03-12 04:08 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 03-08 03:33 | Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.483748571 | $30.00 |
| 03-07 03:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8290009672 | $20.00 |
| 01-17 06:10 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 01-15 10:51 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.759999997 | $50.00 |
| 01-14 02:05 | Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $20.00 |
| 01-13 10:35 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $21.13 |
| 01-11 02:09 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $100.00 |
| 01-11 02:04 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2299999968 | $50.00 |
| 01-08 04:01 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $33.21 |
| 09-04 14:11 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999988 | $500.00 |