ivanx4k
0x900e3c7bc26b51dfd607cd152e8ffadbe11aa4d3
- Realised P&L
- $-653.91
- Volume
- $3.51M
- Markets traded
- 1,022
- Open portfolio
- $582.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,022
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City FC vs. AEK end in a draw? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $137.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.951 | $95.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? · No | 0.790 | 0.785 | $94.20 | −$0.60 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.930 | $93.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.885 | $88.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.845 | $42.25 | +$2.75 |
| Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-20? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.145 | $16.53 | −$0.57 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.785 | $6.15 | +$0.59 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.053 | $5.30 | −$17.70 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.961 | 0.949 | $4.61 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$813.75at 0.458England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$300.32at 0.990Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$266.03at 0.281Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?
- +$263.71at 0.987Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
- +$261.00at 0.100Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 21:27 | Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026? | SELL | 0.4460022727 | $9.81 |
| 10-10 00:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 14:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | SELL | 0.93 | $14.09 |
| 09-11 15:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? | BUY | 0.984 | $8.43 |
| 09-05 16:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 09-04 16:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | SELL | 0.6850909091 | $37.68 |
| 09-01 21:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | SELL | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 08-31 20:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | SELL | 0.65 | $35.75 |
| 08-31 20:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $25.30 |
| 08-31 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.47 | $23.50 |
| 08-30 21:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | SELL | 0.7171896214 | $1.1k |
| 08-30 21:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | SELL | 0.989 | $1.5k |
| 08-26 22:12 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.849 | $10.23 |
| 08-26 00:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.55 | $30.25 |
| 08-24 00:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.69 | $37.95 |