Tordenskjold.1716
0x8ffb4810ac86b71ab7e8432372b3fa28bdff1b73
- Realised P&L
- $-8.2k
- Volume
- $244.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $641.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.071 | $243.10 | +$43.48 |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.009 | $222.57 | −$77.42 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.011 | $101.92 | −$198.07 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.005 | $73.50 | −$226.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$892.09at 0.034Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$24.75at 0.158Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.47at 0.849Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
- +$-59.01at 0.203Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-9.1kat 0.212Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 23:46 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0587127529 | $199.62 |
| 09-11 21:12 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0128048144 | $300.00 |
| 09-11 21:11 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0204075822 | $300.00 |
| 09-11 21:10 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0309066198 | $300.00 |
| 09-11 21:05 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0615155662 | $2.2k |
| 08-17 21:08 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0371048519 | $184.75 |
| 08-17 20:47 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.034828519 | $448.94 |
| 08-17 09:55 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0281119182 | $67.69 |
| 08-12 12:40 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.028 | $17.07 |
| 08-05 19:42 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0231827901 | $7.50 |
| 08-02 23:39 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0200173388 | $70.95 |
| 07-25 17:14 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.021230776 | $26.54 |
| 07-07 18:42 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0384042241 | $1.4k |
| 07-07 18:38 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.311 | $53.22 |
| 07-07 18:37 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.05 | $401.27 |