2fef2
0x8fdbf8c91322e9440afd8416575b7d23435b96eb
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $65.7k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.475 | $1.0k | +$833.84 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? · No | 0.399 | 0.635 | $182.95 | +$68.11 |
| Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.325 | $107.57 | +$73.18 |
| Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 26M in October? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.290 | $93.93 | +$28.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$294.01at 0.150Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?
- +$116.90at 0.125Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?
- +$98.24at 0.234Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$85.84at 0.143Will Emma Myers be the live-action Gwen Stacy?
- +$65.08at 0.475Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 04:37 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.35 | $29.76 |
| 10-03 04:36 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.45 | $15.96 |
| 10-03 04:36 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 04:35 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.36 | $30.53 |
| 10-03 04:35 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.39 | $13.83 |
| 10-03 04:35 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.1194444444 | $107.50 |
| 10-03 04:34 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | SELL | 0.250477707 | $37.75 |
| 10-03 04:34 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | BUY | 0.0973132894 | $345.39 |
| 10-03 04:31 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.515 | $10.30 |
| 10-03 04:23 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $50.12 |
| 10-03 04:22 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 10-03 04:20 | Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare? | SELL | 0.2284898864 | $32.98 |
| 10-03 04:17 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.46 | $52.88 |
| 10-03 04:17 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 10-03 04:16 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.47 | $28.67 |