0x8fcec5074e7483ec0339528c239abb561b470a5b
0x8fcec5074e7483ec0339528c239abb561b470a5b
- Realised P&L
- $44.48
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $57.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.595 | $22.43 | +$0.57 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.090 | 0.095 | $10.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.086 | $6.96 | −$3.04 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.030 | $6.82 | −$3.18 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.290 | $6.04 | −$3.96 |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.035 | $5.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? · No | 0.633 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? · Up | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.54at 0.604Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$16.28at 0.850Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?
- +$11.60at 0.105Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
- +$4.18at 0.688Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$1.14at 0.052Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 21:11 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0689999996 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 21:10 | Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round? | SELL | 0.961 | $156.06 |
| 10-16 21:00 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999915 | $21.86 |
| 10-16 16:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.86 | $22.83 |
| 10-14 18:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6699999951 | $17.79 |
| 10-14 17:55 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $18.36 |
| 10-14 17:55 | Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.09 |
| 10-14 09:26 | Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round? | BUY | 0.64 | $11.34 |
| 10-14 09:25 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.061 | $12.20 |
| 10-08 21:10 | Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $124.42 |
| 10-08 21:06 | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 10-07 21:56 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.7699999992 | $20.00 |
| 10-07 21:55 | Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | BUY | 0.6333498268 | $20.00 |
| 10-07 21:51 | Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $10.00 |
| 10-07 21:47 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $10.00 |