0x8FA2F2556039Df91341ea65C48Cc744F37F3F447-1746570484895
0x8fa2f2556039df91341ea65c48cc744f37f3f447
- Realised P&L
- $323.52
- Volume
- $13.6k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $11.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Finland win on 2026-09-26? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.905 | $5.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Austria win on 2026-09-24? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.675 | $4.89 | −$0.11 |
| Andorra vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.570 | 0.535 | $1.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.461 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$325.92at 0.357Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$85.14at 0.740US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$79.23at 0.164Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$21.25at 0.320UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$15.00at 0.250FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 22:16 | Will Finland win on 2026-09-26? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 22:14 | Will Austria win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 22:14 | Andorra vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 22:08 | Dana White's Contender Series: Damian Piwowarczyk vs. Emilio Quissua (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 21:13 | Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 21:12 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.4609998359 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 22:21 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 16:24 | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 16:24 | UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2199999531 | $3.00 |
| 06-13 16:24 | UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 21:20 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1119999631 | $2.50 |
| 06-02 21:20 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0559999778 | $2.50 |
| 06-02 21:20 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0279999889 | $2.50 |
| 04-15 21:18 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.1160000002 | $2.80 |
| 04-11 22:17 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |