NovaBlaze92
0x8f87043c36f7b906cbc57800d6cb0e5526b011ed
- Realised P&L
- $-373.18
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $63.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.395 | $59.25 | −$21.75 |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.002 | $4.69 | −$182.75 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$148.38 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.88at 0.444Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$11.32at 0.310Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$8.40at 0.049Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.00at 0.530US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.250Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 10:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $63.00 |
| 06-14 10:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $159.00 |
| 06-14 10:14 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 06-12 07:24 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.64 | $35.19 |
| 06-11 14:32 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $55.99 |
| 06-09 08:54 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.65 | $35.74 |
| 06-08 07:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $71.40 |
| 06-08 07:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $73.70 |
| 06-04 04:28 | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.588 | $158.76 |
| 06-02 06:16 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.64 | $162.53 |
| 05-30 08:09 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6299999995 | $160.00 |
| 05-23 12:07 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.57 | $24.82 |
| 05-06 15:10 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.37 | $23.13 |
| 05-05 16:45 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.182 | $11.30 |
| 05-05 16:01 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $90.00 |