0x8f7b410126c510dE779F74C42b60ff0D34dC55ce-1761753722150
0x8f7b410126c510de779f74c42b60ff0d34dc55ce
- Realised P&L
- $-16.8k
- Volume
- $2.20M
- Markets traded
- 956
- Open portfolio
- $182.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded956
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $100.99 | −$637.12 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.082 | $82.00 | +$36.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Up | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$211.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.8kat 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
- +$4.0kat 0.531Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
- +$3.9kat 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
- +$2.8kat 0.531Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
- +$2.0kat 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 11:02 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.01 | $17.95 |
| 03-13 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4750313043 | $211.72 |
| 03-12 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.63 |
| 03-12 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $7.73 |
| 03-11 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $8.24 |
| 03-11 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $12.55 |
| 03-11 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.84 |
| 03-11 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.96 |
| 03-08 15:47 | T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 03-08 15:44 | T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand | SELL | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 03-08 15:37 | T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 03-06 05:45 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | SELL | 0.999 | $607.39 |
| 03-06 05:39 | Mavericks vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.9 | $243.00 |
| 03-06 04:55 | Will Australia win? | BUY | 0.69 | $39.69 |
| 03-06 04:54 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.85 | $516.80 |