gesoos
0x8f7856760e239d987edb7ae2e0dd583711351141
- Realised P&L
- $-648.76
- Volume
- $61.1k
- Markets traded
- 389
- Open portfolio
- $943.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded389
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.600 | $584.52 | −$126.54 |
| Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.959 | 0.969 | $212.64 | +$2.19 |
| Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.657 | 0.295 | $56.99 | −$70.02 |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.095 | $47.50 | −$26.50 |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.704 | 0.151 | $19.69 | −$71.76 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.563 | 0.570 | $18.39 | +$0.23 |
| Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.044 | $4.23 | −$48.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.70at 0.440U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$56.45at 0.028Ledger IPO closing market cap above $1B?
- +$55.66at 0.527Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
- +$49.78at 0.587Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
- +$46.29at 0.605Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 13:14 | Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch | SELL | 0.0066361323 | $1.04 |
| 09-16 13:13 | Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch | SELL | 0.0783333333 | $4.70 |
| 09-13 20:39 | Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch | BUY | 0.22 | $13.20 |
| 09-12 10:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.697 | $27.88 |
| 09-12 10:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6956333973 | $72.48 |
| 09-11 07:57 | Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch | BUY | 0.4074645434 | $16.38 |
| 09-10 07:41 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.2498570948 | $29.72 |
| 09-08 19:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5630151844 | $18.17 |
| 09-08 19:43 | Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $165.34 |
| 09-05 12:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $10.80 |
| 09-05 08:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $9.00 |
| 08-31 15:36 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $4.20 |
| 08-31 15:21 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $12.00 |
| 08-31 13:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.46 | $96.60 |
| 08-30 20:32 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.77 |