0x8F759e60181055d8cE33e67da6b4b547c479550a-1767955834491
0x8f759e60181055d8ce33e67da6b4b547c479550a
- Realised P&L
- $-459.02
- Volume
- $24.3k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $26.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.205 | $20.40 | −$17.41 |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.499 | 0.497 | $2.98 | −$0.01 |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 1.000 | $2.59 | +$0.83 |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.065 | $0.91 | −$1.61 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.05 |
| Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.62 |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.50at 0.500Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$46.82at 0.134Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?
- +$9.81at 0.479Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
- +$7.40at 0.535Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
- +$6.33at 0.240Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-28 20:47 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.00 |
| 04-28 20:45 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 04-28 20:44 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 04-28 20:43 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 04-28 20:40 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.12 |
| 04-28 20:39 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.12 |
| 04-28 20:38 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.12 |
| 04-28 20:37 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.08 |
| 04-28 20:36 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.059 | $0.59 |
| 04-28 20:33 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.88 |
| 04-28 20:32 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.89 |
| 04-25 16:51 | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.04 | $2.00 |
| 04-25 08:18 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $14.18 |
| 04-24 09:46 | Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | SELL | 0.603 | $30.15 |
| 04-23 13:58 | Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $4.58 |