0x8f6b77ab5fb89c7f6541e9a2fecded9c7498ff3b
0x8f6b77ab5fb89c7f6541e9a2fecded9c7498ff3b
- Realised P&L
- $-4.25
- Volume
- $283.14
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $3.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 1.000 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.380 | 0.295 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.225 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.24at 0.319Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 04:34 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 20:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 19:57 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:03 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:51 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:24 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:38 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:14 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7409998162 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:13 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6909997879 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:34 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 05:55 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 21:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:55 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |