x - 19900
0x8f51d37dfaf6076384e70cbdebf3d8911d2f787b
- Realised P&L
- $-839.19
- Volume
- $150.9k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $774.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.147 | 0.325 | $675.76 | +$369.46 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.018 | $49.92 | +$3.15 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.022 | $33.75 | −$15.75 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $6.00 | −$22.00 |
| Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $3.75 | −$13.75 |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.001 | $2.50 | −$37.50 |
| Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $1.25 | −$16.25 |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? · Yes | 0.595 | 0.040 | $1.07 | −$15.00 |
| Will France win the World Cup? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$723.23at 0.426If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
- +$528.33at 0.319Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
- +$206.80at 0.778Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?
- +$166.68at 0.448Will Biden say "MAGA" at DNC speech?
- +$151.35at 0.308Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 22:47 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | SELL | 0.22 | $89.39 |
| 07-19 22:31 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.4400533182 | $77.58 |
| 07-19 22:31 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.42 | $96.60 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.50 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $16.00 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.033 | $19.80 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.018 | $16.20 |
| 07-04 22:48 | Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $17.50 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.50 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $17.50 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $24.00 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.033 | $29.70 |
| 07-04 22:47 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.017 | $30.58 |