0x8f4e01a4aa296262e09b41447ef61f0cf964f455
0x8f4e01a4aa296262e09b41447ef61f0cf964f455
- Realised P&L
- $-36.27
- Volume
- $116.8k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $845.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.775 | $363.84 | +$7.04 |
| Kings vs. Mavericks · Mavericks | 0.820 | 0.775 | $311.93 | −$18.11 |
| Bulls vs. 76ers · 76ers | 0.820 | 0.825 | $169.47 | +$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.700Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.0kat 0.620Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$889.67at 0.187Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$632.74at 0.070Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$471.09at 0.700Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:35 | Kings vs. Mavericks | BUY | 0.8199999998 | $330.04 |
| 11-01 21:41 | Spread: Bengals (-3.5) | SELL | 0.99 | $336.56 |
| 11-01 06:32 | Bulls vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.8199999997 | $168.44 |
| 11-01 02:34 | Spread: Bengals (-3.5) | BUY | 0.7699999999 | $261.77 |
| 10-31 02:31 | Trail Blazers vs. Jazz | BUY | 0.6899999998 | $180.62 |
| 10-31 02:30 | Cavaliers vs. Bucks | BUY | 0.7699999988 | $134.00 |
| 10-31 02:26 | Pacers vs. Heat | SELL | 0.999 | $184.94 |
| 10-31 02:12 | Pistons vs. Nets | SELL | 0.999 | $132.84 |
| 10-30 10:23 | Pistons vs. Nets | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $98.40 |
| 10-30 10:20 | Pacers vs. Heat | BUY | 0.7399999991 | $137.00 |
| 10-30 06:48 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $237.42 |
| 10-14 06:52 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999998 | $342.95 |
| 10-14 06:52 | Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999998 | $356.80 |
| 08-11 08:40 | Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.2429502826 | $167.61 |
| 08-11 08:39 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.9550050017 | $555.62 |