centaurmib
0x8f4d4dfdf1cce7a6d56704264cd42cd75ac8fe7f
- Realised P&L
- $15.18
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $184.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.970 | $63.34 | +$1.93 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.945 | $60.66 | +$0.32 |
| Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? · No | 0.971 | 0.971 | $60.48 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.75at 0.945Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
- +$2.35at 0.953Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.35at 0.957Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.977Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.05at 0.939Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 08:41 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-08 08:09 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $19.88 |