diablo324
0x8f3f29734f55faf23c5bef1cc2bbae96dafda2b7
- Realised P&L
- $949.16
- Volume
- $26.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.360 | $852.53 | +$177.54 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.245 | $574.14 | +$44.14 |
| Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? · Yes | 0.664 | 0.965 | $116.14 | +$36.14 |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.965 | $108.43 | +$8.43 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.022 | $58.75 | −$34.38 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.021 | $52.34 | −$39.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.397Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
- +$28.46at 0.778French election called by June 30, 2026?
- +$20.90at 0.908Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
- +$18.71at 0.930French election called by September 15?
- +$13.40at 0.749Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 05:30 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6643796035 | $80.00 |
| 08-21 05:26 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0229999944 | $4.00 |
| 08-21 05:24 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3309999892 | $15.00 |
| 08-21 05:22 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0229999926 | $3.00 |
| 08-21 05:21 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.03 | $3.26 |
| 08-21 05:21 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3309999929 | $20.00 |
| 08-21 05:20 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2599999945 | $30.00 |
| 08-21 05:19 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.03 | $5.21 |
| 08-21 05:18 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.03 | $14.13 |
| 07-11 07:22 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2749999928 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 07:21 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0429999921 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 07:20 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2749999928 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 07:20 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0429999921 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 07:19 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.042999996 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 07:18 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2749999928 | $20.00 |