haydat
0x8f3c3d6ac7244b2ab87ba17ac2ead6c6fbf4b4b8
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $718.0k
- Markets traded
- 322
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded322
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? · No | 0.967 | 0.971 | $971.00 | +$4.24 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? · No | 0.940 | 0.955 | $477.50 | +$7.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? · No | 0.967 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.360Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?
- +$879.87at 0.986Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
- +$865.27at 0.425Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
- +$750.67at 0.166Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$627.50at 0.748Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | BUY | 0.966757 | $966.76 |
| 09-28 07:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 09-22 09:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.5770594667 | $475.49 |
| 09-22 09:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.578484 | $289.24 |
| 09-22 09:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.575 | $78.21 |
| 09-22 09:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 09-22 08:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.607 | $6.07 |
| 09-22 08:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.06 | $60.00 |
| 09-22 07:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September? | SELL | 0.026 | $13.00 |
| 09-22 06:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.06 | $30.00 |
| 09-09 03:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September? | BUY | 0.94 | $470.00 |
| 08-01 18:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | SELL | 0.9150492672 | $823.54 |
| 07-30 03:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $493.30 |
| 07-08 03:05 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 07-01 03:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.0k |