Marcuszdfb
0x8f35a1443eeb764fbdf589a148b5b05d1fbe2e09
- Realised P&L
- $-34.60
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $10.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? · No | 0.700 | 0.695 | $10.43 | −$0.07 |
| Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.53 |
| 49ers vs. Rams · Rams | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
| Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-22? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.12 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.87at 0.500Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$149.40at 0.500Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$149.10at 0.500Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$132.84at 0.500Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$14.85at 0.500Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 03:18 | Will Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7 | $10.50 |
| 09-09 08:57 | 49ers vs. Rams | BUY | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 09-07 09:49 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.69 | $11.04 |
| 08-22 03:12 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.997 | $19.94 |
| 08-22 03:12 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 08-22 03:11 | Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-22? | BUY | 0.76 | $28.12 |
| 08-08 09:25 | Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-08-08? | BUY | 0.72 | $30.24 |
| 07-16 02:35 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.66 | $17.82 |
| 07-16 02:33 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.998 | $29.97 |
| 07-16 02:32 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.00 |
| 06-30 08:35 | Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7 | $18.06 |
| 06-25 06:11 | Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.82 | $23.53 |
| 05-27 11:30 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.59 | $20.89 |
| 05-18 11:33 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? | BUY | 0.7 | $15.26 |
| 04-22 09:44 | Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.995 | $29.85 |