TOPO85
0x8f15a54a4ffb33611e7a45cf991ddd622f92c363
- Realised P&L
- $-13.1k
- Volume
- $570.7k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.629 | 0.075 | $862.15 | −$6.4k |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.205 | $597.88 | −$186.17 |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.030 | $90.29 | −$249.71 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$800.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.379Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$3.7kat 0.400Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$2.4kat 0.190Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.4kat 0.523Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.510US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 19:46 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.1148495831 | $340.00 |
| 06-10 19:27 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5435093432 | $800.00 |
| 06-10 19:14 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5349417688 | $300.00 |
| 06-10 19:13 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | SELL | 0.8907334813 | $296.98 |
| 06-08 03:45 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.2688342115 | $784.05 |
| 06-08 03:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.9 | $800.24 |
| 06-05 19:39 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.189816758 | $800.00 |
| 06-05 19:30 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | BUY | 0.8997999424 | $300.00 |
| 06-05 19:27 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.611443663 | $500.00 |
| 06-05 19:26 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5625629176 | $300.00 |
| 06-05 19:25 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? | SELL | 0.9530463786 | $126.58 |
| 06-05 19:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL | 0.972 | $316.95 |
| 06-05 19:24 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.88 | $103.52 |
| 06-05 19:23 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.4k |
| 06-01 11:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7599999927 | $100.00 |