daviscarrie
0x8ef2f4dfb71cb2abb9f82a80aedc21c9101da82c
- Realised P&L
- $48.43
- Volume
- $12.8k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $8.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.959 | $8.72 | +$0.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.42at 0.516Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$45.97at 0.340Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$27.68at 0.585Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$5.01at 0.999Will Norway win Eurovision 2025?
- +$0.44at 0.337Solana above $190 on February 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 01:15 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.9099999099 | $8.28 |
| 01-31 13:54 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.28 |
| 01-31 13:44 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.45 |
| 01-30 15:12 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.997 | $24.77 |
| 01-30 14:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $62.46 |
| 01-30 12:29 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $38.31 |
| 12-30 12:50 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.91 |
| 12-30 00:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999557 | $17.22 |
| 12-29 23:01 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.70 |
| 12-29 19:03 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.55 |
| 10-31 01:05 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.10 |
| 10-30 22:48 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.09 |
| 10-30 20:33 | Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.60 |
| 09-29 09:14 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.97 |
| 09-28 23:18 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $19.00 |