real.edgefinder
0x8ecc70504504790b3e4e0d2692a7e7b6e2a324fa
- Realised P&L
- $-63.83
- Volume
- $988.01
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $4.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.015 | $4.94 | −$17.35 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.65at 0.594Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$19.44at 0.720Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$12.29at 0.830Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$3.76at 0.845Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$2.58at 0.660Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 12:53 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5819999948 | $43.96 |
| 04-24 13:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.8451856366 | $20.54 |
| 04-24 13:25 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.3599999988 | $118.59 |
| 03-17 16:35 | StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0698746082 | $22.29 |
| 03-04 13:00 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.7199999862 | $50.00 |
| 02-27 13:16 | Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.9849999994 | $8.31 |
| 02-17 16:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 02-17 15:43 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.829999991 | $60.00 |
| 02-15 19:35 | Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.9849999756 | $20.00 |
| 02-13 19:23 | Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.98 | $20.00 |
| 02-13 19:21 | Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9739999998 | $20.00 |
| 02-10 15:28 | Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.9629999993 | $20.00 |