A-Train
0x8ec829f01516095606e4c265768d75238ebf5709
- Realised P&L
- $-16.2k
- Volume
- $4.44M
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $16.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.5kat 0.241Trump wins every swing state?
- +$17.4kat 0.2102024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$15.1kat 0.296Will Trump win 7 swing states?
- +$14.5kat 0.265Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
- +$7.6kat 0.805Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:20 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.71 | $5.4k |
| 10-26 04:32 | Blue tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $412.99 |
| 10-26 04:31 | Blue tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.6079412032 | $267.18 |
| 10-26 04:30 | Blue tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.6019633408 | $478.72 |
| 09-04 12:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4135671801 | $2.7k |
| 07-21 03:46 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0125093104 | $849.11 |
| 07-21 03:46 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0087368132 | $1.7k |
| 07-21 03:46 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.007 | $213.85 |
| 07-21 03:46 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.006020901 | $6.6k |
| 07-21 03:16 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0162711451 | $522.86 |
| 07-21 03:16 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0102067816 | $3.8k |
| 07-21 03:16 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $145.94 |
| 07-21 03:16 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0079830766 | $1.8k |
| 01-30 02:07 | Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0297505765 | $404.53 |
| 01-30 02:05 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.08 | $400.09 |