PolyBot

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Traders

A-Train

0x8ec829f01516095606e4c265768d75238ebf5709

Realised P&L
$-16.2k
Volume
$4.44M
Markets traded
83
Open portfolio
$16.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded83
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.7100.705$5.4k−$38.36
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0190.005$4.9k−$12.1k
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0130.003$4.5k−$18.6k
Blue tsunami in 2026? · Yes0.6100.680$1.3k+$133.70
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? · Yes0.1990.000$0.00−$15.5k
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? · Yes0.1010.000$0.00−$3.1k
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? · Yes0.0720.000$0.00−$2.4k
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yes0.1820.000$0.00−$16.0k
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$1.0k
Astronomer Divorce Parlay · Yes0.2330.000$0.00−$333.72
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? · Yes0.1410.000$0.00−$802.13
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship? · Yes0.1920.000$0.00−$999.82
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? · No0.8330.000$0.00−$9.2k
North Korea missile test by August 15? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00−$69.18
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? · Yes0.6630.000$0.00−$15.9k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 23:202026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.71$5.4k
10-26 04:32Blue tsunami in 2026?BUY0.62$412.99
10-26 04:31Blue tsunami in 2026?BUY0.6079412032$267.18
10-26 04:30Blue tsunami in 2026?BUY0.6019633408$478.72
09-04 12:25Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4135671801$2.7k
07-21 03:46Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0125093104$849.11
07-21 03:46Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0087368132$1.7k
07-21 03:46Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.007$213.85
07-21 03:46Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.006020901$6.6k
07-21 03:16Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0162711451$522.86
07-21 03:16Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0102067816$3.8k
07-21 03:16Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.009$145.94
07-21 03:16Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0079830766$1.8k
01-30 02:07Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?BUY0.0297505765$404.53
01-30 02:05Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?SELL0.08$400.09