roroelguapo
0x8e89a5b7db763f3c3bfdfd8edaf4a6ff7f48c03b
- Realised P&L
- $40.1k
- Volume
- $946.6k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.715 | $2.3k | +$81.52 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.300 | $600.00 | −$39.87 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.989 | $24.39 | +$0.26 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.337 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.2kat 0.587Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$3.5kat 0.903Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$2.5kat 0.724Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance
- +$2.2kat 0.783France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$2.2kat 0.599Will England win on 2026-07-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 12:19 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3195064955 | $84.36 |
| 10-30 12:18 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $5.35 |
| 10-30 12:18 | Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3366662262 | $500.00 |
| 10-30 11:09 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.69 | $2.2k |
| 10-28 14:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.947 | $10.2k |
| 10-28 00:28 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.56 | $1.6k |
| 10-26 11:20 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.097 | $400.00 |
| 10-26 10:40 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7444903167 | $10.0k |
| 10-20 20:50 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.9699999984 | $490.00 |
| 10-20 20:49 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.969131658 | $4.5k |
| 10-20 18:38 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6455582021 | $432.16 |
| 10-20 18:38 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9104055363 | $12.0k |
| 10-06 08:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.9k |
| 10-06 08:34 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.134 | $0.67 |
| 10-05 18:07 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.3k |