set-631
0x8e870bd24d41da95fbdd798308d627ff9819d658
- Realised P&L
- $-423.05
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $273.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.13at 0.350Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$7.31at 0.578US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$6.95at 0.590US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$2.99at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$2.42at 0.790US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 20:03 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2528081435 | $193.22 |
| 07-07 05:48 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2399999968 | $50.87 |
| 07-07 00:21 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.16 | $25.00 |
| 07-06 23:25 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3699999984 | $85.00 |
| 07-06 22:26 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3699999913 | $24.11 |
| 07-06 02:35 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 05-26 04:52 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.981 | $12.41 |
| 05-26 04:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.9654872832 | $124.13 |
| 05-03 22:05 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4899999772 | $7.31 |
| 04-17 04:34 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.88 | $4.90 |
| 04-17 04:33 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $10.00 |
| 04-17 04:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $20.00 |
| 04-17 04:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $10.00 |
| 04-17 04:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.349999993 | $25.00 |
| 04-17 04:27 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |