sirConradz
0x8e581b4bfaee8af48ad44fb16f301d6cd77f205a
- Realised P&L
- $123.33
- Volume
- $496.3k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $50.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.458Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
- +$3.0kat 0.698Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.807Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$679.14at 0.700Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?
- +$403.30at 0.500Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 20:38 | Will Germany win on 2026-09-24? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 18:37 | Will Germany win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.3799999987 | $91.62 |
| 09-18 20:36 | FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.999 | $194.06 |
| 09-18 17:38 | FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.52 | $101.01 |
| 09-13 21:49 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 21:47 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | SELL | 0.99 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 17:57 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.5899999994 | $119.56 |
| 09-13 16:18 | SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.53 | $100.00 |
| 09-12 20:19 | US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | BUY | 0.3899999983 | $80.00 |
| 09-12 19:25 | Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 19:27 | Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1605882352 | $13.00 |
| 09-10 19:19 | FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.4899999917 | $27.81 |
| 09-09 19:07 | Will SSC Napoli vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599999987 | $12.16 |
| 09-06 17:31 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06? | SELL | 0.999 | $104.48 |
| 09-06 15:42 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06? | BUY | 0.4780876459 | $50.00 |